President Donald Trump has had a simple and bold plan to win the peace in the brutal war between Russia and Ukraine.
In my opinion, Trump knew getting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians to negotiate was never going to be the problem.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin would be.
So Trump seemingly castigated the Ukrainians at the very same time he extended a very welcoming hand to Putin, a nonthreatening and nonjudgmental one at that.
Trump’s maneuver was a brilliant one, including a peace deal that would start with both sides agreeing to an immediate ceasefire.
As expected, Zelenskyy quickly signed on.
At Trump’s demand, the Ukrainians even gave away a big chunk of their national wealth in a minerals deal with the U.S.
Putin has talked a good game and still does.
While Trump and Zelenskyy have taken concrete steps toward peace, Russia has actually stepped up its attacks against Ukraine.
This past weekend, Russian forces have undertaken one of their largest combined drone and missile strikes since the invasion began in February of 2022.
The recent attacks, largely targeting civilian centers, have included nine Kh-101 cruise missiles and a record 355 Shahed-type attack drones.
Putin’s ongoing attacks have contributed to the wider toll of the war on Ukraine, which has seen hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions displaced and significant damage to the nation’s civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s own toll has been enormous, with estimates of total Russians killed and wounded around 1 million men.
With his proposals, Trump had offered Putin a relatively easy off-ramp from his apparent suicidal mission.
But the Russian leader doesn’t want a deal.
A Russian-American businessman told me recently Putin cannot end the war because his whole economy is now based on war.
Russia has mobilized an army of 1.5 million men, has a military budget equal to all European countries combined, and has a massive armament program underway making everything from drones to tanks to artillery shells — you name it.
“It is absolutely imperative for Russia to continue to rely on the military industry, because it [has] become the driver of economic growth,” Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, recently said.
“For a while, it will be next to impossible for Russia to reduce military spending.”
Does Russia eventually reduce its military-industrial complex or retarget its forces against NATO?
Earlier this year, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s military committee chief, warned that the alliance should “expect the unexpected” and urged members to begin preparations for a Russian attack.
The risks of such a war are real.
I believe that President Trump saw ending the war between Ukraine and Russia as the single biggest priority in his second term.
He also knew that neither side would be happy about the result of a deal.
But the “bloodbath” would end.
Trump believed he could end the war because of his working relationship with Putin during his first term.
The two disagreed on many things but were able to live with each other.
But Putin himself has changed since Trump’s first term.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said the Putin today is almost unrecognizable from the man he knew in the 2000s.
As Trump is discovering, Putin also is very different from the man he dealt with previously.
Trump said in a social media post Sunday, “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him.”
It is widely believed that Putin was encouraged to invade Ukraine after he saw then-President Joe Biden order America’s hasty and humiliating exit from Afghanistan in 2021.
Sensing weakness, he believed that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days — a week at most — if he invaded.
Putin then launched an unprovoked attack on a sovereign democratic state.
But Zelenskyy’s resolve, coupled with immediate backup from Britain (and still armed with those Javelin anti-tank missiles Trump had previously provided), the Ukrainians not only stopped the Russian invasion but repulsed them from much of their territory.
Over three years later, Putin has now wasted over a million Russian lives and untold national treasure on a folly of a war that will only give him a small portion of Ukraine if he agrees to a ceasefire.
My Russian friend suggests such a “peace” does not secure Putin’s position. Putin needs war to survive.
Putin has stated repeatedly he wants to rebuild the old Soviet empire, not just Ukraine.
He wants to end America’s “unipolar” hegemony around the world.
He wants NATO to effectively disappear.
Putin can only achieve these things by widening the war, not agreeing to a peace deal now.
The U.S. really has only one feasible response to Putin: to continue arming Ukraine.
If Ukraine were to fall because the U.S. withdraws, it would be catastrophic (think Afghanistan by a factor of 10).
If Putin gets Ukraine, he would only be emboldened to take the Baltic states, Finland, Poland and more.
President Trump should be applauded for his efforts to get both parties to the peace table.
But if those efforts ultimately fail, only one person is responsible, Vladimir Putin.
The U.S. need not escalate or de-escalate the war — but just give the Ukrainians enough weapons to continue the fight.
It is a war Putin started, and he alone must come to his senses to end it. This may take longer than imagined.
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